Posts · CMCSA · November 11, 2026
Comcast kept its $1.32 dividend. The price expects the profit behind it to shrink.
The price needs an operating margin near 10.8%, against a 19% median over the last ten years.
The two stories
Each story is a set of drivers, valued on the same data. The post explains why each is plausible and what would have to happen for it to come true.
| Story | Revenue growth | Long-run margin | Return on new capital after year 10 | Value per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadband erodes slowly | -5%, then 1.5% a year | 17%, by year 3 | 9.5% | $57.96 |
| Broadband's decline is structural | -5%, then -1% a year | 13%, by year 5 | 7.0% | $32.11 |
Values as of the post's date, from the cases it rests on. A summary only: the stories, their reasons, the sources and the weak spots are in the full post.