Companies · VST · Power
What does Vistra's price assume?
The margin the price assumes
Revenue grows as its record suggests; the operating margin is solved at today's price.
At $133.45 on November 11, 2026, with growth of 6.7% a year, the price assumes an operating margin of 29.5% by year 5.
The price assumes
29.5%
Operating margin by year 5, solved at the price
Its 9-year median
10.8%
Fiscal 2017–2025, adjusted for R&D and leases
Its industry
21.4%
Power, Damodaran Online, January 2026
The price assumes a margin above the company's own median and above its industry's.
The numbers behind the chart
| Fiscal year | Adjusted operating margin |
|---|---|
| 2017 | 3.6% |
| 2018 | 5.4% |
| 2019 | 16.9% |
| 2020 | 13.4% |
| 2021 | −12.5% |
| 2022 | −8.5% |
| 2023 | 18.1% |
| 2024 | 23.8% |
| 2025 | 10.8% |
- Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
- 6.7% a yearIts industry's 5-year revenue growth (6.7%), which is lower than the company's own.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Power
- Margin path
- From today's margin to 29.5% by year 5Solved at the price. After that, the margin holds.
The growth the price assumes
At its median margin, no revenue growth between −50% and 100% a year matches today's price.
The assumptions both views share
These are neutral settings, the same for every company. Each view holds them and solves for one driver at today's price.
- Reinvestment
- $0.37 of revenue for each $1 investedThe industry's sales-to-capital ratio: how much new capital growth needs.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Power
- Cost of capital
- 6.14%The return investors need for the risk: the industry's beta, the market's risk premium, and debt rated B1/B+ from its median margin, with a stated 5-year debt maturity. Built by the engine from the parts listed under Sources, each with its date.
- After year 10
- Growth at the riskfree rate, foreverNew investment earns its cost of capital and no more, so growth after year 10 adds no value, and the cost of capital moves to a mature company's.
Worth knowing
- Its filings under its current registration cover fewer than eleven years, so growth uses the five-year record alone.
- Profitable in 7 of the last ten years, so its median margin is a weak yardstick.
- Its margin moved over a range of 26.6% in ten years, so its median is a weak yardstick.
- Its debt is large against its usual earnings: rated B1/B+ at its median margin.
This is a mechanical starting point with neutral assumptions, not a valuation. The story decides.
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- Price: Qualuation's records, close of November 11, 2026.
- 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2025, filed February 27, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0001692819-26-000006).
- 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026, filed August 10, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0001692819-26-000019).
- Margin record: SEC filings, fiscal 2017-2025, operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases.
- Industry margin: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Power, adjusted for R&D and leases.
- Sales to capital: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Power.
- US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), October 29, 2026.
- Less the US default spread (Damodaran Online, July 2026).
- Industry beta, Power (Damodaran Online, January 2026).
- Equity risk premium (Damodaran Online, October 2026).
- Debt rated B1/B+ at its median margin (rating table, Damodaran Online, January 2026).
- The margin the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the assumptions above.