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Companies · QCOM · Semiconductor

What does Qualcomm's price assume?

$176.57, close of November 11, 2026 (Qualuation's records) · scan of November 12, 2026

The margin the price assumes

Revenue grows as its record suggests; the operating margin is solved at today's price.

At $176.57 on November 11, 2026, with growth of 5.8% a year, the price assumes an operating margin of 39.3% by year 5.

The price assumes

39.3%

Operating margin by year 5, solved at the price

Its 10-year median

30.4%

Fiscal 2016–2025, adjusted for R&D and leases

Its industry

36.5%

Semiconductor, Damodaran Online, January 2026

The price assumes a margin above the company's own median and above its industry's.

Operating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2016-2025The adjusted operating margin each year from 2016 to 2025, its 10-year median of 30.4%, and the 39.3% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead0%10%20%30%40%50%20162019202220252031Fiscal 2016: 30.0%Fiscal 2017: 13.8%Fiscal 2018: 4.1%Fiscal 2019: 31.6%Fiscal 2020: 29.4%Fiscal 2021: 34.5%Fiscal 2022: 41.3%Fiscal 2023: 28.6%Fiscal 2024: 30.7%Fiscal 2025: 30.9%10-year median 30.4%The price assumes 39.3% by 203139.3%the price assumesOperating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2016-2025The adjusted operating margin each year from 2016 to 2025, its 10-year median of 30.4%, and the 39.3% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead0%10%20%30%40%50%201620252031Fiscal 2016: 30.0%Fiscal 2017: 13.8%Fiscal 2018: 4.1%Fiscal 2019: 31.6%Fiscal 2020: 29.4%Fiscal 2021: 34.5%Fiscal 2022: 41.3%Fiscal 2023: 28.6%Fiscal 2024: 30.7%Fiscal 2025: 30.9%median 30.4%The price assumes 39.3% by 203139.3%the price assumes
Operating margin each fiscal year, adjusted for R&D and leases (SEC filings), the 10-year median, and the margin the price assumes by year 5.
The numbers behind the chart
Fiscal yearAdjusted operating margin
201630.0%
201713.8%
20184.1%
201931.6%
202029.4%
202134.5%
202241.3%
202328.6%
202430.7%
202530.9%
Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
5.8% a yearFrom its own revenue growth, the lower of its 5- and 10-year rates (here the 10-year).SEC filings, revenue to fiscal 2025
Margin path
From today's margin to 39.3% by year 5Solved at the price. After that, the margin holds.

The growth the price assumes

The operating margin moves to its own median; revenue growth is solved at today's price.

At $176.57 on November 11, 2026, with an operating margin moving to its 10-year median of 30.4% by year 5, the price assumes revenue growth of 11.4% a year for 5 years, slowing to the riskfree rate by year 10.

The price assumes

11.4%

Revenue growth a year, years 1 to 5, solved at the price

Its 10-year growth

5.8%

Revenue, a year on average, from its SEC filings

Its industry

11.2%

Semiconductor, five years, Damodaran Online, January 2026

The price assumes revenue growth above the company's own record, and close to its industry's.

Revenue growth each fiscal yearRevenue growth each fiscal year from 2016 to 2025, its 10-year rate of 5.8%, and the 11.4% a year the price assumes for 2027 to 2031, years 1 to 5.ahead−20%0%20%40%60%20162019202220252031Fiscal 2016: −6.8%Fiscal 2017: −5.5%Fiscal 2018: 1.6%Fiscal 2019: 7.4%Fiscal 2020: −3.1%Fiscal 2021: 42.6%Fiscal 2022: 31.7%Fiscal 2023: −19.0%Fiscal 2024: 8.8%Fiscal 2025: 13.7%2027, year 1: the price assumes 11.4%2028, year 2: the price assumes 11.4%2029, year 3: the price assumes 11.4%2030, year 4: the price assumes 11.4%2031, year 5: the price assumes 11.4%10-year rate 5.8%11.4%the price assumesRevenue growth each fiscal yearRevenue growth each fiscal year from 2016 to 2025, its 10-year rate of 5.8%, and the 11.4% a year the price assumes for 2027 to 2031, years 1 to 5.ahead−20%0%20%40%60%201620252031Fiscal 2016: −6.8%Fiscal 2017: −5.5%Fiscal 2018: 1.6%Fiscal 2019: 7.4%Fiscal 2020: −3.1%Fiscal 2021: 42.6%Fiscal 2022: 31.7%Fiscal 2023: −19.0%Fiscal 2024: 8.8%Fiscal 2025: 13.7%2027, year 1: the price assumes 11.4%2028, year 2: the price assumes 11.4%2029, year 3: the price assumes 11.4%2030, year 4: the price assumes 11.4%2031, year 5: the price assumes 11.4%own rate 5.8%11.4%the price assumes
Revenue growth each fiscal year (SEC filings), its 10-year rate, and the growth the price assumes for years 1 to 5.
The numbers behind the chart
Fiscal yearRevenue growth
2016−6.8%
2017−5.5%
20181.6%
20197.4%
2020−3.1%
202142.6%
202231.7%
2023−19.0%
20248.8%
202513.7%
Operating margin
From today's margin to 30.4% by year 5Its own 10-year median, held. After that, the margin holds.SEC filings, fiscal 2016-2025, the median operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases
Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
11.4% a yearSolved at the price. From year 6, it slows each year to the riskfree rate by year 10.

The assumptions both views share

These are neutral settings, the same for every company. Each view holds them and solves for one driver at today's price.

Reinvestment
$1.21 of revenue for each $1 investedThe industry's sales-to-capital ratio: how much new capital growth needs.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Semiconductor
Cost of capital
10.18%The return investors need for the risk: the industry's beta, the market's risk premium, and debt rated Aaa/AAA from its median margin, with a stated 5-year debt maturity. Built by the engine from the parts listed under Sources, each with its date.
After year 10
Growth at the riskfree rate, foreverNew investment earns its cost of capital and no more, so growth after year 10 adds no value, and the cost of capital moves to a mature company's.

Worth knowing

  • Its filings report discontinued operations, so part of the record may be a business it no longer runs.
  • Revenue grew 13.5% a year over five years and grew 5.8% over ten: the record points two ways.
  • Its industry's margin today is more than 3 points away from its median over the last 6 years of industry data.
  • Its margin moved over a range of 20.7% in ten years, so its median is a weak yardstick.

This is a mechanical starting point with neutral assumptions, not a valuation. The story decides.

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Sources

  • Price: Qualuation's records, close of November 11, 2026.
  • 10-K for the period ended September 28, 2025, filed November 5, 2025 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000804328-25-000085).
  • 10-Q for the period ended June 28, 2026, filed July 29, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000804328-26-000086).
  • Margin record: SEC filings, fiscal 2016-2025, operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Industry margin: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Semiconductor, adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Revenue growth record: SEC filings, revenue, fiscal 2015-2025, the average yearly growth.
  • Industry growth: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Semiconductor, revenue growth over five years.
  • Sales to capital: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Semiconductor.
  • US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), October 29, 2026.
  • Less the US default spread (Damodaran Online, July 2026).
  • Industry beta, Semiconductor (Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • Equity risk premium (Damodaran Online, October 2026).
  • Debt rated Aaa/AAA at its median margin (rating table, Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • The margin the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the assumptions above.
  • The growth the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the margin at its median and the assumptions above.