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Companies · PSX · Oilfield Svcs/Equip.

What does Phillips 66's price assume?

$258.68, close of November 11, 2026 (Qualuation's records) · scan of November 12, 2026

The margin the price assumes

Revenue grows as its record suggests; the operating margin is solved at today's price.

At $258.68 on November 11, 2026, with growth of 3.0% a year, the price assumes an operating margin of 5.8% by year 5.

The price assumes

5.8%

Operating margin by year 5, solved at the price

Its 10-year median

4.1%

Fiscal 2016–2025, adjusted for R&D and leases

Its industry

4.8%

Oilfield Svcs/Equip., Damodaran Online, January 2026

The price assumes a margin above the company's own median and above its industry's.

Operating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2016-2025The adjusted operating margin each year from 2016 to 2025, its 10-year median of 4.1%, and the 5.8% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead−10%−5%0%5%10%20162019202220252031Fiscal 2016: 3.0%Fiscal 2017: 3.9%Fiscal 2018: 7.4%Fiscal 2019: 4.3%Fiscal 2020: −6.4%Fiscal 2021: 2.1%Fiscal 2022: 8.9%Fiscal 2023: 7.0%Fiscal 2024: 2.6%Fiscal 2025: 4.9%10-year median 4.1%The price assumes 5.8% by 20315.8%the price assumesOperating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2016-2025The adjusted operating margin each year from 2016 to 2025, its 10-year median of 4.1%, and the 5.8% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead−10%−5%0%5%10%201620252031Fiscal 2016: 3.0%Fiscal 2017: 3.9%Fiscal 2018: 7.4%Fiscal 2019: 4.3%Fiscal 2020: −6.4%Fiscal 2021: 2.1%Fiscal 2022: 8.9%Fiscal 2023: 7.0%Fiscal 2024: 2.6%Fiscal 2025: 4.9%median 4.1%The price assumes 5.8% by 20315.8%the price assumes
Operating margin each fiscal year, adjusted for R&D and leases (SEC filings), the 10-year median, and the margin the price assumes by year 5.
The numbers behind the chart
Fiscal yearAdjusted operating margin
20163.0%
20173.9%
20187.4%
20194.3%
2020−6.4%
20212.1%
20228.9%
20237.0%
20242.6%
20254.9%
Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
3.0% a yearFrom its own revenue growth, the lower of its 5- and 10-year rates (here the 10-year).SEC filings, revenue to fiscal 2025
Margin path
From today's margin to 5.8% by year 5Solved at the price. After that, the margin holds.

The growth the price assumes

The operating margin moves to its own median; revenue growth is solved at today's price.

At $258.68 on November 11, 2026, with an operating margin moving to its 10-year median of 4.1% by year 5, the price assumes revenue growth of 26.0% a year for 5 years, slowing to the riskfree rate by year 10.

The price assumes

26.0%

Revenue growth a year, years 1 to 5, solved at the price

Its 10-year growth

3.0%

Revenue, a year on average, from its SEC filings

Its industry

10.8%

Oilfield Svcs/Equip., five years, Damodaran Online, January 2026

The price assumes revenue growth above the company's own record and above its industry's.

Revenue growth each fiscal yearRevenue growth each fiscal year from 2016 to 2025, its 10-year rate of 3.0%, and the 26.0% a year the price assumes for 2027 to 2031, years 1 to 5.ahead−40%−20%0%20%40%60%20162019202220252031Fiscal 2016: −14.8%Fiscal 2017: 21.4%Fiscal 2018: 8.9%Fiscal 2019: −3.7%Fiscal 2020: −40.2%Fiscal 2021: 73.8%Fiscal 2022: 52.5%Fiscal 2023: −13.3%Fiscal 2024: −2.9%Fiscal 2025: −7.5%Off the chart: 2020: −40%, 2021: 74%2027, year 1: the price assumes 26.0%2028, year 2: the price assumes 26.0%2029, year 3: the price assumes 26.0%2030, year 4: the price assumes 26.0%2031, year 5: the price assumes 26.0%10-year rate 3.0%26.0%the price assumesRevenue growth each fiscal yearRevenue growth each fiscal year from 2016 to 2025, its 10-year rate of 3.0%, and the 26.0% a year the price assumes for 2027 to 2031, years 1 to 5.ahead−40%−20%0%20%40%60%201620252031Fiscal 2016: −14.8%Fiscal 2017: 21.4%Fiscal 2018: 8.9%Fiscal 2019: −3.7%Fiscal 2020: −40.2%Fiscal 2021: 73.8%Fiscal 2022: 52.5%Fiscal 2023: −13.3%Fiscal 2024: −2.9%Fiscal 2025: −7.5%Off the chart: 2020: −40%, 2021: 74%2027, year 1: the price assumes 26.0%2028, year 2: the price assumes 26.0%2029, year 3: the price assumes 26.0%2030, year 4: the price assumes 26.0%2031, year 5: the price assumes 26.0%own rate 3.0%26.0%the price assumes
Revenue growth each fiscal year (SEC filings), its 10-year rate, and the growth the price assumes for years 1 to 5.
The numbers behind the chart
Fiscal yearRevenue growth
2016−14.8%
201721.4%
20188.9%
2019−3.7%
2020−40.2%
202173.8%
202252.5%
2023−13.3%
2024−2.9%
2025−7.5%
Operating margin
From today's margin to 4.1% by year 5Its own 10-year median, held. After that, the margin holds.SEC filings, fiscal 2016-2025, the median operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases
Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
26.0% a yearSolved at the price. From year 6, it slows each year to the riskfree rate by year 10.

The assumptions both views share

These are neutral settings, the same for every company. Each view holds them and solves for one driver at today's price.

Reinvestment
$2.79 of revenue for each $1 investedThe industry's sales-to-capital ratio: how much new capital growth needs.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Oilfield Svcs/Equip.
Cost of capital
7.47%The return investors need for the risk: the industry's beta, the market's risk premium, and debt rated A1/A+ from its median margin, with a stated 5-year debt maturity. Built by the engine from the parts listed under Sources, each with its date.
After year 10
Growth at the riskfree rate, foreverNew investment earns its cost of capital and no more, so growth after year 10 adds no value, and the cost of capital moves to a mature company's.

Worth knowing

  • Revenue grew 15.6% a year over five years and grew 3.0% over ten: the record points two ways.

This is a mechanical starting point with neutral assumptions, not a valuation. The story decides.

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Sources

  • Price: Qualuation's records, close of November 11, 2026.
  • 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2025, filed February 20, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0001534701-26-000006).
  • 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2026, filed October 28, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0001534701-26-000037).
  • Margin record: SEC filings, fiscal 2016-2025, operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Industry margin: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Oilfield Svcs/Equip., adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Revenue growth record: SEC filings, revenue, fiscal 2015-2025, the average yearly growth.
  • Industry growth: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Oilfield Svcs/Equip., revenue growth over five years.
  • Sales to capital: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Oilfield Svcs/Equip..
  • US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), October 29, 2026.
  • Less the US default spread (Damodaran Online, July 2026).
  • Industry beta, Oilfield Svcs/Equip. (Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • Equity risk premium (Damodaran Online, October 2026).
  • Debt rated A1/A+ at its median margin (rating table, Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • The margin the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the assumptions above.
  • The growth the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the margin at its median and the assumptions above.