Companies · LLY · Drugs (Pharmaceutical)
What does Eli Lilly's price assume?
The margin the price assumes
At neutral growth, no operating margin between −50% and 80% matches today's price.
The growth the price assumes
The operating margin moves to its own median; revenue growth is solved at today's price.
At $1,437.29 on November 11, 2026, with an operating margin moving to its 9-year median of 31.1% by year 5, the price assumes revenue growth of 36.0% a year for 5 years, slowing to the riskfree rate by year 10.
The price assumes
36.0%
Revenue growth a year, years 1 to 5, solved at the price
Its 10-year growth
12.6%
Revenue, a year on average, from its SEC filings
Its industry
18.4%
Drugs (Pharmaceutical), five years, Damodaran Online, January 2026
The price assumes revenue growth above the company's own record and above its industry's.
The numbers behind the chart
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 6.3% |
| 2017 | −5.9% |
| 2018 | 7.6% |
| 2019 | 3.8% |
| 2020 | 9.9% |
| 2021 | 15.4% |
| 2022 | 0.8% |
| 2023 | 19.6% |
| 2024 | 32.0% |
| 2025 | 44.7% |
- Operating margin
- From today's margin to 31.1% by year 5Its own 9-year median, held. After that, the margin holds.SEC filings, fiscal 2017-2025, the median operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases
- Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
- 36.0% a yearSolved at the price. From year 6, it slows each year to the riskfree rate by year 10.
The assumptions both views share
These are neutral settings, the same for every company. Each view holds them and solves for one driver at today's price.
- Reinvestment
- $1.11 of revenue for each $1 investedThe industry's sales-to-capital ratio: how much new capital growth needs.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Drugs (Pharmaceutical)
- Cost of capital
- 8.10%The return investors need for the risk: the industry's beta, the market's risk premium, and debt rated Aaa/AAA from its median margin, with a stated 5-year debt maturity. Built by the engine from the parts listed under Sources, each with its date.
- After year 10
- Growth at the riskfree rate, foreverNew investment earns its cost of capital and no more, so growth after year 10 adds no value, and the cost of capital moves to a mature company's.
Worth knowing
- Revenue grew 21.6% a year over five years and grew 12.6% over ten: the record points two ways.
- Revenue grew 21.6% a year over five years, faster than 20%: a steady-company starting point fits it less well.
- Its margin moved over a range of 22.2% in ten years, so its median is a weak yardstick.
This is a mechanical starting point with neutral assumptions, not a valuation. The story decides.
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- Price: Qualuation's records, close of November 11, 2026.
- 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2025, filed February 12, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000059478-26-000013).
- 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2026, filed October 29, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000059478-26-000108).
- Margin record: SEC filings, fiscal 2017-2025, operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases.
- Industry margin: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Drugs (Pharmaceutical), adjusted for R&D and leases.
- Revenue growth record: SEC filings, revenue, fiscal 2015-2025, the average yearly growth.
- Industry growth: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Drugs (Pharmaceutical), revenue growth over five years.
- Sales to capital: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Drugs (Pharmaceutical).
- US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), October 29, 2026.
- Less the US default spread (Damodaran Online, July 2026).
- Industry beta, Drugs (Pharmaceutical) (Damodaran Online, January 2026).
- Equity risk premium (Damodaran Online, October 2026).
- Debt rated Aaa/AAA at its median margin (rating table, Damodaran Online, January 2026).
- The growth the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the margin at its median and the assumptions above.