Companies · EXE · Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration)
What does Expand Energy's price assume?
The margin the price assumes
Revenue grows as its record suggests; the operating margin is solved at today's price.
At $88.63 on November 11, 2026, with revenue shrinking 0.5% a year, the price assumes an operating margin of 18.6% by year 5.
The price assumes
18.6%
Operating margin by year 5, solved at the price
Its 10-year median
−0.7%
Fiscal 2015–2025, adjusted for R&D and leases
Its industry
25.7%
Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration), Damodaran Online, January 2026
The price assumes a margin above the company's own median, and below its industry's.
The numbers behind the chart
| Fiscal year | Adjusted operating margin |
|---|---|
| 2015 | −148.2% |
| 2016 | −56.0% |
| 2017 | −1.4% |
| 2018 | 3.8% |
| 2019 | −0.1% |
| 2020 | −166.1% |
| 2022 | 32.2% |
| 2023 | 36.0% |
| 2024 | −17.6% |
| 2025 | 21.0% |
- Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
- −0.5% a yearFrom its own revenue growth, the lower of its 5- and 10-year rates (here the 10-year).SEC filings, revenue to fiscal 2025
- Margin path
- From today's margin to 18.6% by year 5Solved at the price. After that, the margin holds.
The growth the price assumes
At its median margin, no revenue growth between −50% and 100% a year matches today's price.
The assumptions both views share
These are neutral settings, the same for every company. Each view holds them and solves for one driver at today's price.
- Reinvestment
- $0.57 of revenue for each $1 investedThe industry's sales-to-capital ratio: how much new capital growth needs.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration)
- Cost of capital
- 8.15%The return investors need for the risk: the industry's beta, the market's risk premium, and debt rated D2/D from its median margin, with a stated 5-year debt maturity. Built by the engine from the parts listed under Sources, each with its date.
- After year 10
- Growth at the riskfree rate, foreverNew investment earns its cost of capital and no more, so growth after year 10 adds no value, and the cost of capital moves to a mature company's.
Worth knowing
- The growth used is a decline: the lower of its 5- and 10-year revenue rates is negative.
- Revenue grew 18.3% a year over five years and shrank 0.5% over ten: the record points two ways.
- Profitable in 4 of the last ten years, so its median margin is a weak yardstick.
- Its margin moved over a range of 180.4% in ten years, so its median is a weak yardstick.
- Its debt is large against its usual earnings: rated D2/D at its median margin.
This is a mechanical starting point with neutral assumptions, not a valuation. The story decides.
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- Price: Qualuation's records, close of November 11, 2026.
- 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2025, filed February 18, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000895126-26-000011).
- 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2026, filed October 27, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000895126-26-000068).
- Margin record: SEC filings, fiscal 2015-2025, operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases.
- Industry margin: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration), adjusted for R&D and leases.
- Sales to capital: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration).
- US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), October 29, 2026.
- Less the US default spread (Damodaran Online, July 2026).
- Industry beta, Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration) (Damodaran Online, January 2026).
- Equity risk premium (Damodaran Online, October 2026).
- Debt rated D2/D at its median margin (rating table, Damodaran Online, January 2026).
- The margin the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the assumptions above.