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What does Carrier Global's price assume?

$54.58, close of November 11, 2026 (Qualuation's records) · scan of November 12, 2026

The margin the price assumes

Revenue grows as its record suggests; the operating margin is solved at today's price.

At $54.58 on November 11, 2026, with growth of 4.1% a year, the price assumes an operating margin of 23.6% by year 5.

The price assumes

23.6%

Operating margin by year 5, solved at the price

Its 3-year median

12.1%

Fiscal 2023–2025, adjusted for R&D and leases

Its industry

12.8%

Building Materials, Damodaran Online, January 2026

The price assumes a margin above the company's own median and above its industry's.

Operating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2023-2025The adjusted operating margin each year from 2023 to 2025, its 3-year median of 12.1%, and the 23.6% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead0%5%10%15%20%25%202320252031Fiscal 2023: 12.1%Fiscal 2024: 13.3%Fiscal 2025: 11.0%3-year median 12.1%The price assumes 23.6% by 203123.6%the price assumesOperating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2023-2025The adjusted operating margin each year from 2023 to 2025, its 3-year median of 12.1%, and the 23.6% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead0%5%10%15%20%25%202320252031Fiscal 2023: 12.1%Fiscal 2024: 13.3%Fiscal 2025: 11.0%median 12.1%The price assumes 23.6% by 203123.6%the price assumes
Operating margin each fiscal year, adjusted for R&D and leases (SEC filings), the 3-year median, and the margin the price assumes by year 5.
The numbers behind the chart
Fiscal yearAdjusted operating margin
202312.1%
202413.3%
202511.0%
Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
4.1% a yearIts industry's 5-year revenue growth (4.1%), which is lower than the company's own.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Building Materials
Margin path
From today's margin to 23.6% by year 5Solved at the price. After that, the margin holds.

The growth the price assumes

The operating margin moves to its own median; revenue growth is solved at today's price.

At $54.58 on November 11, 2026, with an operating margin moving to its 3-year median of 12.1% by year 5, the price assumes revenue growth of 21.1% a year for 5 years, slowing to the riskfree rate by year 10.

The price assumes

21.1%

Revenue growth a year, years 1 to 5, solved at the price

Its 5-year growth

4.5%

Revenue, a year on average, from its SEC filings

Its industry

4.1%

Building Materials, five years, Damodaran Online, January 2026

The price assumes revenue growth above the company's own record and above its industry's.

Revenue growth each fiscal yearRevenue growth each fiscal year from 2018 to 2025, its 5-year rate of 4.5%, and the 21.1% a year the price assumes for 2027 to 2031, years 1 to 5.ahead−20%−10%0%10%20%30%2018202120252031Fiscal 2019: −1.6%Fiscal 2020: −6.2%Fiscal 2021: 18.1%Fiscal 2022: −16.1%Fiscal 2023: 9.6%Fiscal 2024: 18.7%Fiscal 2025: −3.3%2027, year 1: the price assumes 21.1%2028, year 2: the price assumes 21.1%2029, year 3: the price assumes 21.1%2030, year 4: the price assumes 21.1%2031, year 5: the price assumes 21.1%5-year rate 4.5%21.1%the price assumesRevenue growth each fiscal yearRevenue growth each fiscal year from 2018 to 2025, its 5-year rate of 4.5%, and the 21.1% a year the price assumes for 2027 to 2031, years 1 to 5.ahead−20%−10%0%10%20%30%201820252031Fiscal 2019: −1.6%Fiscal 2020: −6.2%Fiscal 2021: 18.1%Fiscal 2022: −16.1%Fiscal 2023: 9.6%Fiscal 2024: 18.7%Fiscal 2025: −3.3%2027, year 1: the price assumes 21.1%2028, year 2: the price assumes 21.1%2029, year 3: the price assumes 21.1%2030, year 4: the price assumes 21.1%2031, year 5: the price assumes 21.1%own rate 4.5%21.1%the price assumes
Revenue growth each fiscal year (SEC filings), its 5-year rate, and the growth the price assumes for years 1 to 5.
The numbers behind the chart
Fiscal yearRevenue growth
2018–
2019−1.6%
2020−6.2%
202118.1%
2022−16.1%
20239.6%
202418.7%
2025−3.3%
Operating margin
From today's margin to 12.1% by year 5Its own 3-year median, held. After that, the margin holds.SEC filings, fiscal 2023-2025, the median operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases
Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
21.1% a yearSolved at the price. From year 6, it slows each year to the riskfree rate by year 10.

The assumptions both views share

These are neutral settings, the same for every company. Each view holds them and solves for one driver at today's price.

Reinvestment
$2.06 of revenue for each $1 investedThe industry's sales-to-capital ratio: how much new capital growth needs.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Building Materials
Cost of capital
8.05%The return investors need for the risk: the industry's beta, the market's risk premium, and debt rated A2/A from its median margin, with a stated 5-year debt maturity. Built by the engine from the parts listed under Sources, each with its date.
After year 10
Growth at the riskfree rate, foreverNew investment earns its cost of capital and no more, so growth after year 10 adds no value, and the cost of capital moves to a mature company's.

Worth knowing

  • Its filings report discontinued operations, so part of the record may be a business it no longer runs.
  • Its adjusted record has 3 complete years, not ten.
  • Its filings under its current registration cover fewer than eleven years, so growth uses the five-year record alone.

This is a mechanical starting point with neutral assumptions, not a valuation. The story decides.

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Sources

  • Price: Qualuation's records, close of November 11, 2026.
  • 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2025, filed February 5, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0001783180-26-000008).
  • 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2026, filed October 29, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0001783180-26-000037).
  • Margin record: SEC filings, fiscal 2023-2025, operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Industry margin: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Building Materials, adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Revenue growth record: SEC filings, revenue, fiscal 2020-2025, the average yearly growth.
  • Industry growth: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Building Materials, revenue growth over five years.
  • Sales to capital: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Building Materials.
  • US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), October 29, 2026.
  • Less the US default spread (Damodaran Online, July 2026).
  • Industry beta, Building Materials (Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • Equity risk premium (Damodaran Online, October 2026).
  • Debt rated A2/A at its median margin (rating table, Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • The margin the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the assumptions above.
  • The growth the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the margin at its median and the assumptions above.