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Companies · ADM · Farming/Agriculture

What does Archer-Daniels-Midland's price assume?

$70.92, close of November 11, 2026 (Qualuation's records) · scan of November 12, 2026

The margin the price assumes

Revenue grows as its record suggests; the operating margin is solved at today's price.

At $70.92 on November 11, 2026, with growth of 1.7% a year, the price assumes an operating margin of 5.9% by year 5.

The price assumes

5.9%

Operating margin by year 5, solved at the price

Its 10-year median

3.7%

Fiscal 2016–2025, adjusted for R&D and leases

Its industry

5.6%

Farming/Agriculture, Damodaran Online, January 2026

The price assumes a margin above the company's own median, and close to its industry's.

Operating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2016-2025The adjusted operating margin each year from 2016 to 2025, its 10-year median of 3.7%, and the 5.9% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead0%1%2%3%4%5%6%20162019202220252031Fiscal 2016: 3.5%Fiscal 2017: 3.2%Fiscal 2018: 3.8%Fiscal 2019: 3.3%Fiscal 2020: 3.7%Fiscal 2021: 4.4%Fiscal 2022: 5.8%Fiscal 2023: 5.6%Fiscal 2024: 3.8%Fiscal 2025: 2.6%10-year median 3.7%The price assumes 5.9% by 20315.9%the price assumesOperating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2016-2025The adjusted operating margin each year from 2016 to 2025, its 10-year median of 3.7%, and the 5.9% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead0%1%2%3%4%5%6%201620252031Fiscal 2016: 3.5%Fiscal 2017: 3.2%Fiscal 2018: 3.8%Fiscal 2019: 3.3%Fiscal 2020: 3.7%Fiscal 2021: 4.4%Fiscal 2022: 5.8%Fiscal 2023: 5.6%Fiscal 2024: 3.8%Fiscal 2025: 2.6%median 3.7%The price assumes 5.9% by 20315.9%the price assumes
Operating margin each fiscal year, adjusted for R&D and leases (SEC filings), the 10-year median, and the margin the price assumes by year 5.
The numbers behind the chart
Fiscal yearAdjusted operating margin
20163.5%
20173.2%
20183.8%
20193.3%
20203.7%
20214.4%
20225.8%
20235.6%
20243.8%
20252.6%
Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
1.7% a yearFrom its own revenue growth, the lower of its 5- and 10-year rates (here the 10-year).SEC filings, revenue to fiscal 2025
Margin path
From today's margin to 5.9% by year 5Solved at the price. After that, the margin holds.

The growth the price assumes

At its median margin, no revenue growth between −50% and 100% a year matches today's price.

The assumptions both views share

These are neutral settings, the same for every company. Each view holds them and solves for one driver at today's price.

Reinvestment
$1.48 of revenue for each $1 investedThe industry's sales-to-capital ratio: how much new capital growth needs.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Farming/Agriculture
Cost of capital
7.62%The return investors need for the risk: the industry's beta, the market's risk premium, and debt rated A2/A from its median margin, with a stated 5-year debt maturity. Built by the engine from the parts listed under Sources, each with its date.
After year 10
Growth at the riskfree rate, foreverNew investment earns its cost of capital and no more, so growth after year 10 adds no value, and the cost of capital moves to a mature company's.

This is a mechanical starting point with neutral assumptions, not a valuation. The story decides.

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Sources

  • Price: Qualuation's records, close of November 11, 2026.
  • 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2025, filed February 17, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000007084-26-000011).
  • 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026, filed August 4, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000007084-26-000042).
  • Margin record: SEC filings, fiscal 2016-2025, operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Industry margin: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Farming/Agriculture, adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Sales to capital: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Farming/Agriculture.
  • US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), October 29, 2026.
  • Less the US default spread (Damodaran Online, July 2026).
  • Industry beta, Farming/Agriculture (Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • Equity risk premium (Damodaran Online, October 2026).
  • Debt rated A2/A at its median margin (rating table, Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • The margin the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the assumptions above.